Ethiopia’s armed opposition unites against Abiy Ahmed: 5 reads on the country’s political struggles

A culture of solving political differences with conflict has led to persistent disagreements about the Ethiopian state.

Seven Ethiopian armed groups have announced a new alliance aimed at overthrowing the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The so-called Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival was unveiled in September 2026. It arrives at a time when Abiy is grappling with armed conflict and deepening political and ethnic divisions. There is fighting in the Amhara region between federal forces and local insurgents. Meanwhile, rising tensions in Tigray have sparked fears of renewed war. These are only two flashpoints in a sea of political divisions that war, elections and national dialogue have so far failed to heal.

The Conversation Africa has published extensively on Ethiopia’s attempts to hold the country together. Here are five essential reads.

National dialogue struggles to bridge the divide

Ethiopia launched a national dialogue process in 2022 after a stop to a two-year war in Tigray. The process aims to address the grievances that have led to decades of political instability and violence.

Some political actors have been left out of the process, however. They include armed groups like the Oromo Liberation Army, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Amhara Fano. Yet they are central to ongoing conflicts. They have now become part of the alliance of seven groups against Abiy’s government.

In a recent paper, Dereje Melese Liyew examined why the dialogue process is facing a crisis. He explains its weaknesses and what this means for Ethiopia’s efforts to resolve political conflicts without resorting to violence.

Read more:
Ethiopia’s national dialogue was meant to heal the nation, but divisions are deepening

Battle for democracy

Abiy’s arrival in power in 2018 brought hopes of more political freedom. Political prisoners were released and restrictions on the media were eased.

But a stable democratic settlement didn’t follow. And the interventions weren’t Ethiopia’s first attempt at democratic governance. A culture of solving political differences with conflict, the absence of strong political institutions and ethnic polarisation have led to disagreements about the Ethiopian state.

Terefe Gebreyesus has examined what Ethiopia needs to get democracy right. In his view, four things are missing: sustained economic growth, political elites committed to democratic rules, independent political institutions, and international pressure.

Read more:
Ethiopia’s two bids at democracy have failed: what it will take to succeed

Ethiopia’s past

One reason building a common political future has been so difficult is that Ethiopians do not share a common interpretation of their past.

Political movements have repeatedly drawn on competing ideas about the state, ethnicity, marginalisation and national identity. These histories shape present-day arguments over how Ethiopia should be organised.

Ethiopia needs a new rallying point instead of recycling its painful past, argues Mohammed Girma. He notes that returning to contested historical narratives can be divisive. Ethiopia instead needs a shared political project that can bring its different communities together.

Read more:
Ethiopia needs a new rallying point instead of recycling its painful past

Changing leaders won’t fix everything

Debates about Ethiopia’s political future frequently focus on the enormous power of the prime minister. Would term limits help address this?

Under Ethiopia’s system, prime ministers get their authority from parliament. They remain in office for as long as a majority in parliament is willing to support them. There are no fixed term limits.

However, limiting an individual leader’s time in office cannot by itself make democratic institutions stronger. The deeper issue is how political power is organised and constrained, says Alemayehu Fentaw Weldemariam, who has studied Ethiopia’s constitutional design and law.

He argues that meaningful political competition and mechanisms that make the government accountable matter alongside rules for how long a leader can remain in office.

Read more:
Should Ethiopia limit how long its prime minister can serve? Why this won’t fix a deeper democracy problem

What unites Ethiopia?

Amid political fragmentation, Ethiopian leaders have sought symbols capable of creating a shared sense of national purpose. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has been one of the most prominent.

The massive hydroelectric project was formally initiated by Meles Zenawi. He served as president of Ethiopia from 1991 to 1995, and as prime minister from 1995 until his death in 2012. And as early as the 1950s, Emperor Haile Selassie recognised the potential of a dam for Ethiopia’s developmental needs.

But can a development project create political unity? Namhla Thando Matshanda notes that the dam offers a rare potential rallying point in a country where competing visions of national identity have repeatedly fuelled political tensions.

Read more:
Ethiopia has struggled to build national unity: can its big new dam deliver it?

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