A new Democratic Congress will view Trump’s harsh Cuba policy skeptically – but that doesn’t mean a change is coming soon

0 November 14, 2026 08:42

Cuba is unlikely to be a huge priority for incoming Democrats, and the Trump administration is unlikely to change its maximum pressure approach.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has designs for Cuba – and potentially on the U.S. presidency. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty ImagesThe so-called “blue tsunami” that hit the United States in the midterm elections is causing ripples around the world.

Having won a historic victory, congressional Democrats now appear poised to challenge the Trump administration’s conduct of foreign affairs.

The Iran war, support for Ukraine and the management of Venezuelan oil certainly all appear to be on the agenda of some Democrats.

The flipping of the House and Senate from Republican to Democratic control has also led to speculation that members of Congress may also wish to challenge Trump’s Cuba policy.

After all, the United States’ position on Cuba has swung in recent decades, depending on the balance of power in Washington. An easing of tensions and normalization of relations between the U.S. and Cuba took place under the presidency of Barack Obama, only to be reversed following the election of Donald Trump in 2016. President Joe Biden largely followed Trump’s lead, while making more allowance for activities supporting the Cuban people.

In his second term, however, Trump has pursued an even harder line than before. Since January 2026, the administration has instituted a devastating economic and fuel blockade, prohibiting Cubans from importing oil. This pressure tactic is meant to get the Cuban government to agree to increased economic privatization and political democratization.

A man walks in the dark during a blackout in Cuba on Sept. 18, 2026.
AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa

While the Cuban government has met certain demands, notably with respect to the economy, it has resolutely refused to change either its personnel or its authoritarian character.

The result of this blockade has been a stalemate and increased hardship for Cubans. As a historian of U.S.-Cuban relations, I saw that hardship firsthand during a visit to Havana in June 2026.

While I understand the notion that emboldened Democrats may try to force a change in direction of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, including on Cuba, I doubt they will be able to do so. In fact, there are reasons to believe that the midterm results may actually reinforce Republicans’ hard-line approach to the Caribbean island.

Strained life in Cuba

Since 1961, at the height of the Cold War, the U.S. government has enforced a rigorous sanctions regime against communist Cuba – the longest-running embargo in modern history.

In January 2026, the Trump administration made that embargo even more severe with the oil importation ban, part of a regional pressure campaign that also saw U.S. forces abduct and remove from office Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, a longtime ally of the Cuban government.

For Cubans, no oil means no electricity. Blackouts, already a problem, have become longer and more frequent.

Absent electricity, Cubans have no regular access to running water. Disease, from mosquitoes, other pests and unsafe water, has increased dramatically. Cuba’s once much-praised medical system often cannot treat patients unless they bring their own drugs and supplies.

Inflation has soared and tourists have stopped coming, while industrial and agricultural production has declined dramatically.

Cubans hate the U.S. embargo for contributing to this misery. At the same time, many also blame their government. During my last visit, Cubans I spoke with told me that they believe their leaders are more concerned with protecting their power and privileges than with the welfare of the average Cuban.

For many Cubans, this indifference explains why President Miguel Díaz-Canel and his allies have rejected the Trump administration’s central demand of surrendering their monopoly on power.

Havana’s strategy

Trump’s demands, blockade and the threat of military force have led to some concessions by Cuba’s leaders.

During the past year, Cuba’s government has released some political prisoners and permitted greater foreign investment, most notably from Cuban Americans.

Blackouts are a part of life in Havana.
Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images

The government in Havana has also expanded the range of legally permitted private enterprise in Cuba.

But when it comes to the question of power, Díaz-Canel and his allies remain implacable. They know that relinquishing power will cut off the supply of profits from state-owned businesses that flows their way and maintains their opulent lifestyles.

They also argue that Trump has no right to determine the rulers of a sovereign nation.

Rubio’s ideological priority

For the moment, it appears that Díaz-Canel hopes international and domestic politics will compel Trump to turn his attention from Cuba.

No doubt, the “blue wave” of the U.S. midterms has encouraged that belief. If so, I believe the hopes of the Cuban government are probably misplaced.

This is in large part because U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban American who formerly represented Florida in the U.S. Senate, remains determined to topple the Cuban government.

Rubio has long been a foreign policy hawk and fervent proponent of regime change in Cuba. As secretary of state, he has also been a key figure in the Trump administration’s push to expand American power across Latin America and support right-wing movements and governments.

It is also no secret that Rubio wishes to succeed Trump as president. That has not changed since the midterm elections.

In order to become the Republican nominee for president, Rubio will most likely need to win Florida’s primary. And if he is to win the White House, Rubio will surely need Florida’s electoral votes, especially in light of the results of last week’s election in Texas, which saw a U.S. Senate seat and the governorship turn Democrat.

Rubio’s path to the presidency will be easier if he continues to enjoy the support of South Florida’s Cuban American community, which favors regime change by an overwhelming margin and represent a powerful voting bloc in Florida.

In short, I believe ambition and ideology will provide Rubio with the impetus to refuse all compromise with what remains of Cuba’s communist government.

Interestingly, some Republicans seem uneasy with aspects of America’s Cuba policy, particularly the emphasis on investment opportunities as opposed to democratic change.

Nonetheless, Trump has reasons to push harder on Cuba. The midterm results show that his domestic agenda – and the war in Iran – are vote losers. He may see toppling the Cuban government as a guaranteed “win” for him and his administration, both in terms of legacy and in the eyes of voters.

Congressional opposition?

Of course, Democrats in the new Congress could deny the administration funds to maintain the oil blockade or, in an extreme case, invade Cuba.

Democrats could also exercise Congress’ powers of investigation and oversight.

Though these measures enjoy some support among Democrats, it is far from certain that House or Senate leaders would support them.

After all, the Democratic Congress has other priorities that appear of greater concern to the American people, such as the Iran war, not to mention domestic policy issues, such as healthcare and an “affordability agenda.”

Moreover, Democratic leaders may regard efforts to end the oil embargo as politically risky: Such efforts could alienate voters in Florida and divide the Democratic caucus, some of whose members favor the embargo.

Outside of Florida, Americans generally disapprove of U.S. policy toward Cuba. But they are unlikely to demand that their representatives force the administration to change course.

With the pressure on Democrats over Cuba relatively low, and their priorities elsewhere, the Trump administration will likely face little opposition to maintaining the embargo until it can say that it has achieved its political and strategic objectives.

Meanwhile, members of Cuba’s governing elite, without appealing alternatives, will likely look to cling to power as long as they can.

And the Cuban people will continue to pay the price.
I work for no organization that would benefit from this publication in any way.

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