Israeli attacks leave at least 20 dead in Gaza
By Rodrigo Santos Andrade
Houthi rebel offensive fuels fears of escalation in the Middle East and Europe
visibility comment0 event September 18, 2026 timer 06:00
The Iran-backed rebel group has taken control of the vital Bab al-Mandab Strait.
In this extraordinary and deeply worrying year for international security, some weeks nevertheless stand out as particularly momentous.
Events in Yemen now threaten to escalate the war between the US, Israel and Iran into a regional conflagration. Houthi rebels have captured strategically important positions on the Red Sea coast that will give them the potential to shut down Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil. And we’ve heard unverified claims from Saudi Arabia it shot down a Houthi drone that was targeting the holy city of Mecca, constituting a “red line” in that years-long conflict.
Meanwhile, after Nato shot down a Russian drone over Lithuania and a Russian warship fired flares at a Danish helicopter in the Baltic Sea, Nato members have been openly canvassing the idea of triggering the alliance’s Article 5 collective defence mechanism in response to Russian aggression.
So far, so seriously unsettling. But we’ve also heard Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, outline his vision for “the next just, stable and prosperous world order” in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg. In it, Carney talked up the idea of his country becoming the first “associate member of the EU”. More about that later.
Middle East
The capture by Iran-backed Houthi rebels of a port and several islands – giving them control of the Bab al-Mandab strait, which carries roughly 10% of the world’s seaborne oil trade – poses a serious threat to Saudi oil exports. These have already been badly hit by Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz on its other coast.
There’s now a serious concern that the Iran war could escalate into regional conflict – or something even more dangerous, writes Simon Mabon, an expert in Middle East politics at the University of Lancaster. Mabon explains why the complex patchwork of alliances involved, the likelihood of further oil price spikes, and the involvement of three major powers in the shape of the US, Russia and China, mean the Iran conflict has the potential to spiral out of control.
Read more:
Houthi offensive in Yemen adds to fear that Iran war could escalate into a wider global conflict
Yemen had been largely quiet since 2022. But the long-running struggle between the Shia Houthis and the Sunni Yemen government, in which Saudi Arabia intervened in 2015, has once again exploded into full-scale war. Vincent Durac of University College Dublin explains the background to this conflict, which now appears to be another moving part in the further destabilisation of the Middle East.
Read more:
Why Yemen has returned to conflict
The rapid Houthi advance on the Red Sea took place as the Brics alliance met in India for its 18th annual summit. Brics began as a group of “emerging economies” based around Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It now claims to represent 49.5% of the global population, 40% of global GDP, and 26% of global trade. Its members portray themselves as a counterweight to a US-led world order.
Vital trade chokepoints: Suez Canal, Bab al-Mandab Strait, Strait of Hormuz.
La Terase via Shutterstock
But as Stefan Wolff of the University of Birmingham points out, the war in the Middle East has exposed deep divisions in that bloc. Iran joined as a full member at the beginning of 2024, at the same time as Saudi Arabia. And both Russia and China are reported to have developed ties with the Houthis.
It’s no wonder that the group’s New Delhi declaration, as Wolff notes, “contains no reference to shipping, to maritime security, or to freedom of navigation”.
Read more:
Houthi rebels’ control of Red Sea oil chokepoint exposes deep divisions in Brics
Nato concerns
Concerns at the prospect of the US-Iran conflict escalating are matched in Europe, where many Nato members are increasingly exercised over what appear to be increasingly belligerent moves from Russia – quite apart from its war of aggression in Ukraine.
Over the past week, we’ve heard from several senior European politicians and former Nato officials about the growing likelihood of a wider conflict with Russia. Their fears were underlined on Tuesday, when an Italian jet shot down a Russian drone over Lithuania. The Baltic state, like its neighbours Latvia and Estonia, is particularly sensitive to Russian interference.
This was just the latest in a long list of incidents in which the war in Ukraine has threatened to spill across into neighbouring countries. Nato experts David Galbreath of the University of Bath and Simon J. Smith of the Royal Danish Defence College have assessed the threat to the North Atlantic alliance.
They conclude that, while there’s no call for Nato to panic, there is an urgent need for it to get to grips with the myriad challenges it faces in an increasingly dangerous world. Especially given the seeming ambivalence of Washington towards guaranteeing European security.
Read more:
Nato is concerned about the threat from Russia. But it isn’t panicking – yet
Mark Carney’s consummate statecraft
Anyone listening to Carney’s speech to the European parliament earlier today will have appreciated the Canadian prime minister’s statecraft. You can read the speech here.
Carney, who spoke last week of wanting “a unique alliance with Europe”, was responding to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who on Wednesday said she wanted to work on “opening the door” to closer ties with Canada. Carney celebrated the already strong ties between Canada and Europe, but spoke of “a deeper partnership” based on “our common values, our compatible systems, and our complementary strengths”.
In a cheeky aside, delivered with a grin, Carney reassured listeners he was not proposing a third bloc “to become a great-power rival – only with better manners”. This prompted delighted laughter from much of his audience.
We plan to have more on Carney’s speech tomorrow. But thanks to our Canadian colleagues, we already have this analysis from Stewart Prest, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia. Prest examines Canada’s motivation for seeking a closer association with the EU, and what it might offer on both sides of the deal.
Read more:
Thanks, Trump: Why Canada may become the European Union’s first ever ‘associate member’
Conversation weekly
Speaking of alliances, the latest edition of The Conversation Weekly takes an in-depth look at AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia, which was signed five years ago.
Justin Bergman, my opposite number in Australia, interviews defence and security analyst Hugh White of Australian National University. It’s well worth a listen.
Tags: Academic Journalism, The Conversation, The Conversation Academic News
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