Super El Niño could leave South Africa short of grazing. Timing of livestock fodder crops is crucial

South Africa is entering a potentially difficult summer for farmers. The El Niño is already established: the warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface which affects weather patterns globally and brings about severe weather phenomena like floods, droughts and heatwaves. The World Meteorological Organisation expects it to strengthen into a very strong event towards the end of 2026, with effects likely to continue into early 2027.

This super El Niño brings increased risks of drought, heatwaves, water stress, loss of grazing for livestock, lower grain yields and veld fires (wildfires).

We are agricultural researchers working in pasture and crop production. We’re interested in finding ways, in dry times, to improve the plants that livestock eat.

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Our latest research shows when to plant fodder radish and which varieties to choose so it grows well and produces plenty of nutritious feed, even without irrigation.

Fodder radish (Raphanus sativus L.) is a quick-growing plant with green leaves and tuber roots. In winter, when grass dies off, or during droughts, it is a nutritious feed for livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). It’s used both on smallholder farms and in large-scale farming, especially where grazing land is limited. But as these kind of fodder radish varieties were only recently bred, their ideal planting date had never been tested under rainfed conditions and without fertiliser.

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We carried out our study at Cedara, in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands, a farming region in eastern South Africa with deep, red clay soil where summers are warm and wet. We planted fodder radish over four months, relying on rainfall and using no fertiliser. This reflected the conditions of smallholder farmers who have limited access to irrigation and fertiliser.

The results were clear: planting dates mattered. In general, the earlier the planting date (December and January), the better the outcomes.

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This is an important finding for livestock farmers. Evaluating planting dates under a shifting climate is vital for protecting food security, and for helping farmers adapt to erratic weather without having to buy costly new equipment. A high yield of plants grown for fodder ensures that livestock have enough food to eat. The better the nutritional levels of the fodder, the bigger, healthier and stronger the animals grow. Farmers who can’t grow enough fodder of a good quality stand to lose income when their animals go without.

Farmers should time when they plant fodder radish depending on whether they want to harvest more leaves and stems or more tubers. The timing of the planting should take into consideration the local climatic conditions.

Our research found that in this part of the world, fodder radish planted in December produced much more of the radish tubers. When planted in January, it produced the most leafy feed and protein content.

We also found that the earlier the planting dates, the higher concentrations of minerals such as phosphorus, potassium and zinc in leaves. These nutrients may help in livestock growth, development and overall health, especial when natural grasses decline in quality and quantity.

This means that even when farmers don’t have irrigation, planting at the right time can produce more nutritious livestock feed from rainfall alone.

This finding is particularly relevant as El Niño strengthens, bringing an increased probability of drier weather, drought and abnormally high temperature in southern Africa. That makes research into managing rainfed crops especially relevant. It’s also good information for farmers growing crops as the climate changes and makes rainfall less predictable. Planting too early or too late can expose young plants to drought or flooding.

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Our findings matter to livestock farmers because with decreasing and unpredictable rainfall, the condition of natural pastures deteriorates, making it hard to grow fodder crops. If farmers have to buy food supplements for their livestock, this can be very costly, especially for households that depend on livestock for their survival and income.

Our results suggest that farmers should think about planting as a window rather than a fixed date. Planting can be adjusted within a season to fit in with times of early and late rainfall.

Planting fodder radish in certain months may not solve all the problems caused by the super El Niño droughts, but our research shows that relatively simple management decisions can help farmers use available rainfall more effectively.

Our findings also show why climate information needs to reach farmers before planting decisions are made.

As this year’s El Niño starts to affect Africa, agricultural advisors, meteorological services and researchers must start working together to translate season forecasts into practical recommendations for farmers about when to plant. If farmers had access to rainfall forecasts, and information about soil moisture, grazing conditions and water availability on their land, they’d be able to make better decisions about when and how much livestock fodder to plant.

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We conducted this experiment in one small area in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands over only two planting seasons. This means the same results won’t apply in other parts of South Africa that have different soil types, climate and rainfall patterns. More trials are needed in different places, using different crop varieties, planting times and rainfall conditions.

The message from our research is simple: in a water-stressed country like South Africa, planting windows are an important way to make the most of the rain that falls.
Lusanda Ncisana received funding from the Agricultural Research Council and the National Research Foundation. Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi receives funding from the Wellcome Trust and Water Research Commission of South Africa.

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Super El Niño could leave South Africa short of grazing. Timing of livestock fodder crops is crucial

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