Goldman’s Kaplan on Fed’s Warsh and AI Capex Boom

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0 June 17, 2026 11:34

In a recent appearance on Bloomberg’s “Open Interest,” Robert Kaplan—Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs and former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas—shared critical insights into the shifting landscape of American monetary policy and macroeconomics. His analysis focused on two defining themes: the leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and a massive wave of technological investment.

A New Chapter at the Federal Reserve: Expecting a Neutral Stance

As financial markets closely watch the transition of power at the central bank, Kaplan weighed in on what to expect from incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Ahead of Warsh’s highly anticipated first official press conference as Chair, Kaplan suggested that market participants should brace for a more measured, neutral tone.

Rather than leaning heavily hawkish (favoring higher rates to combat inflation) or dovish (favoring lower rates to stimulate growth), Warsh is expected to prioritize flexibility and data-dependence. This approach aims to anchor economic stability and reassure global markets during a critical period of economic transition, avoiding any premature commitments to sharp policy pivots.

The “Historic” AI Capex Boom

Beyond monetary policy, Kaplan highlighted a structural shift driving the real economy: an unprecedented surge in capital expenditures (capex) across the United States. He characterized this ongoing spending wave as “historic,” largely propelled by massive corporate investments in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and next-generation data infrastructure.

This capex boom is reshaping multiple sectors, including:

• Technology & Cloud Infrastructure: Unparalleled spending on data centers, advanced semiconductors, and AI hardware.

• Energy & Power Grids: A rapidly growing demand for electricity and power infrastructure to keep up with the immense energy needs of AI processing facilities.

• Corporate Automation: Widespread integration of enterprise AI tools to optimize productivity and combat labor constraints.

According to Kaplan, this structural investment cycle could act as a powerful engine for US economic growth, potentially boosting productivity levels over the long term even as the Federal Reserve navigates complex macroeconomic headwinds.

Channel: Bloomberg Television