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By Rodrigo Santos Andrade
Top election forecaster shifts 21 races in Democrats’ direction
visibility comment0 event October 28, 2026 timer 14:30
With less than one week before election day, Larry Sabato’s crystal ball is moving 21 House, Senate, and Governors’ races toward the Democrats. Sabato tells CNN’s Erin Burnett the shift is happening because “people are unhappy, and frankly they’ve been unhappy for some time.”
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten breaks down the accuracy of race ratings in past elections and explains what this year’s ratings are likely going to mean on election day. Also, CNN’s Jake Tapper identifies what factors he’s looking at as the midterm campaigns sprint to the finish line.
0:00 Larry Sabato explains what is driving Crystal Ball to shift races towards Dems
2:44 Harry Enten looks at how many House races have tilted the Democrats way in the past year
5:24 How often does the opposition party outperform race predictions?
6:30 The latest polling from 3 key Senate races
8:08 Jake Tapper on the shift in South Carolina’s Senate race
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